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Seattle Split?

What's happening in Seattle? Who's to blame? A look at when things started turning in the Emerald City, and how to fix it.

By Spags (2.27.2021)

What about Seattle has Russell Wilson sleepless? A quality organization, perennial contender, rising stars at the wide receiver position, and a willingness to pay their star QB. This situation is completely backwards from Houston... yet, Russell wants out? I believe you can look no further for the answers to Seattle's potential split, than Predictable Pete.

The hashtag was sweeping the social media sphere. #LetRussCook. Football fans everywhere wanted to cath a glimpse of what the star quarterback could do with a higher volume of passes. But Pete Carroll wouldn't budge, at least not initially. He's prescribed to the line of thinking that a team must establish the run to be successful. In a pass happier league, Pete still believed you needed to run the ball first and pass later. Establishing the run is a great concept, but in today's NFL it's important to establish a winning formula first. And this formula looks different for every team, depending on your roster.

Seems like just yesterday, the run first king got cold feet at the altar on the biggest stage. Ball on the 1 yard line, and you possess Beast Mode in your backfield. Carroll opts to throw the ball and the rest is history. Could this moment have led to an even tighter Pete Carroll? Quite possibly. When people start to leave their comfort zone to fit in with a crowd, it only takes one bad experience to force somebody back into their safety blanket; and unfortunately more secure than before.

By the Numbers

In 2018, Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Shottenheimer attempted the fewest number of passes in the NFL... but still won their division. But this same formula was the cause of their playoff exit versus Dallas in the first round.

In theory, Pete's mantra should work. Establish the run on first, and second down. Stay ahead of the chains. Then let Russ be special on third down.

But the numbers speak differently.

Throughout the 2018 season, Seattle favored the run-run-pass sequence more than any team in the league. They would call this play sequence 26% of the time, over 10 percentage points higher than the league average. Yet, frequency didn't yield results. Pistol shy Pete and Shotty only found success with this formula 41% of the time. When Seattle favored pass first in play calling, and relied on running later in downs to pick up short yardage, they were successful 88.9% of the time (pass-rush-rush), 71% (pass-pass-rush), and 51% (pass-rush-pass). (FiveThirtyEight statistics)

With Pete's predictable play style, Russell Wilson for years has been put in obvious passing situations where deception is gone and defenders pin their ears back. He's been wildly successful in most of these moments, which makes one wonder...what can he do when he's not backed into the corner? Frankly, nobody should put Russ in the corner. Ever.

So to start 2021, Pete let Russ cook. Wilson was cooking like Gordon Ramsay was in his ear telling him how undercooked his beef wellington was. Somebody lit a fire under Russ, and the Seahawks came out soaring. 5-0 start for the team, and Wilson went over the 300-yard passing mark five times while among the leaders in the MVP conversation. The defenses adjusted, and Seattle couldn't. The last eight games of the season, Seattle only averaged 22.6 ppg and Wilson was still throwing it at a 60% clip. Wilson believes the offense dropped back a few gears, and Pete Carroll firmly believes they didn't run it enough.

And here lies the problem. Carroll needs to adjust his offense to be less predictable to either extreme and build a scheme that explores their star QB's talents. Wilson doesn't believe he has the trust of Coach Carroll and why should he? Since that 1 yard interception that sealed the Seahawks fate, Carroll has been unwilling to hand the keys to Wilson. And the one season he does, there's no adjustments made in an attempt to possibly say to the world "his way doesn't work, back to mine."

Pete Carroll declared they need, and will, run the ball more in 2021. Russell Wilson shortly thereafter, declared he'd like to fly somewhere else.